KARACHI: The analysts who participated in the Geo News programme ‘Aman Ki Asha’ were unanimously of the view that if lasting peace is established between Pakistan and India, the two countries’ defence budgets will be reduced by 25 percent, and the peace dividend in 20 years’ time will be worth $550 billion.
Pakistan’s total debt is around $60 billion. We can pay it off and still pay every Pakistani Rs20,000, they agreed.
The analysts, including Major-General (retd) Athar Abbas, say that peace is in the interest of the militaries of the two countries.
These views were expressed during the special transmission of Geo News on Pakistan-India relations and ‘Aman Ki Asha’ which was hosted by senior anchor Kamran Khan.
The main point that emerged during the programme was that if Pakistan and India entered into a 20-year peace agreement, then the defence budget would be reduced by 25 percent, and Pakistan would reap benefits worth $2 billion a year and India $9 billion. These figures come to 33 percent of the defence budgets of the two countries. The two countries will derive collective benefits worth $550 billion in the shape of a 20-year peace agreement. Pakistan will gain benefits of $89 billion while India $461 billion.
In the shape of a peace agreement, Pakistan will save $4.5 billion a year with the help of which over 20,000 schools a year and over 4,000 hospitals can be established.
Expressing his views in the programme, former DG ISPR, Major-General (retd) Athar Abbas, said that defence budget is drawn in view of the threats facing the country.
An expert in foreign affairs, Zafar Hilali, said that the desire is good, but it is not immediately likely to be translated into a reality. Federal Information Minister Pervez Rasheed said that the resources spent on war can be spent on people’s welfare by the two countries.
A leader of the Tehreek-e-Insaf, Arif Alvi, said that it is a good idea, but its time has not come yet. Munir Kamal said that Pakistan will have to do more than India. MQM leader Haider Abbas Rizvi said that the era of India-centric policies is over. PPP’s Taj Haider said that the peace dividend cannot be measured in terms of dollars and cents.
All the participants of the special transmission agreed that the two countries will be able to spend billions of dollars on their peoples if the defence budgets are reduced.
Major-General (retd) Athar Abbas said that the main threat to Pakistan’s security is India. He said that in view of the threats from India, Pakistan determines the bottom line of its defence budget.
Athar Abbas said that the Pakistan Army extends its total support to the government for solving the problems pertaining to the strategic issues whereas the Indian army trumped its political leadership on the issue of Siachen. He said that the country can reduce its defence budget if a peace agreement is achieved with India.
He said that increase in trade between Pakistan and India will create a conducive environment for peace, and an improved economic situation will lead to the resolution of disputes. Peace between the two countries is in the interest of their peoples and militaries.
The former ISPR chief said that a huge hurdle in the way of peace between the two countries is the sensationalism of the Indian media. The two countries had been on the brink of war because of the Indian media. Even Noam Chomsky says that the Pakistani media is more objective and free than the Indian media.
Federal Minister for Information Pervez Rasheed said that normality will facilitate improved trade relations between Pakistan and India. He said that the Pakistan Army has a desire for peace. The minister said that non-state actors in Pakistan want to impose their will on the state whereas in India it is the state which asks the non-state actors there to raise war cries.
Former diplomat Zafar Hilali said that India has ambitions of becoming a global power. He said that India is granting its people subsidies in different categories so trade with India will not be a profitable exercise for Pakistan. He said that India is being hypocritical over terrorism instead of extending a helping hand to Pakistan.
Leader of the Tehreek-e-Insaf Arif Alvi said that the desire for peace between Pakistan and India is a good thing, but the two countries have failed to create the kind of environment which is conducive to peace. Pakistan has always desired peace whereas India always comes up with excuses to derail the peace process.
Pakistan and India should increase trade volume with each other. The international media has no access to Gaza and Kashmir, therefore, the atrocities being committed there are not reported in the press.
National Bank Chairman Munir Kamal said that beginning of the improved relations between India and Pakistan can be started with bilateral trade.
He called upon the two countries to immediately start direct trade. He said that the establishments of both the countries are a hurdle in peace, terming the Indian media as irresponsible.
MQM’s Haider Abbas Rizvi said that the whole region was not making progress because of the coldness between India and Pakistan. He said economy was leading politics in this century. Therefore, we have to give a new direction to our politics keeping in view our economy.
He described internal threats as the greatest risk to the country’s security.
He said that Indian media has been taken over by extremism.
Speaking in the programme, PPP leader Taj Haider said that worth of peace cannot be measured in dollars. He stressed the need for an agreement between the two counties on an annual reduction of the defence budget by a particular ratio.
He said that hardliners on both sides were a hurdle to peace.
Kamran Khan during the special transmission of ‘Aman Ki Asha’ asked the participants of the show six questions.
Question 1: Can the defence budget be cut by over 25 percent if peace is maintained between India and Pakistan?
All the guests except Taj Haider responded in ‘Yes’.
Question 2: Should the two countries focus more on improving trade ties rather than solving disputes?
All the guests replied ‘Yes’.
Question 3: Do you think that maintaining peace is in favour of the militaries of both the countries?
All the guests responded ‘Yes’.
Question 4: Are establishments of both the countries a hurdle in peace?
Munir Kamal, Haider Abbas Rizvi, Zafar Hilali and Maj Gen (retd) Athar Abbas gave a reply in ‘Yes’ while Arif Alvi and Taj Haider responded ‘No’.
Question 5: Do you think that the Indian media’s sensationalism was also responsible for bitter relations between the two counties?
Almost all the guests gave the answer as ‘Yes’. Taj Haider did not give a clear reply.
Question 6: Do you believe that non-state actors affect relations between the two countries more than the states?
All the guests gave a reply as ‘Yes’.
Kamran Khan said that the focus of PM Nawaz’s foreign policy is on maintaining peace between the two countries.
He said that special importance is being attached to the forthcoming Nawaz-Manmohan meeting following attacks on Indian police and troops in occupied Kashmir.
This is for the time that the Indian leadership has decided not to derail the talks’ process with Pakistan after such an incident. Due to that fact, there is a hope that we are moving on the right track, which leads to peace.
Kamran Khan said that the Pakistan-India dispute in the last 65 years has cost India 500 billion dollars and Pakistan 55 billion dollars. Fifty-percent population of the world’s poorest people (600 million) lives in Pakistan and India. The number of the poorest people in India is 500 million. India spends a staggering $42 billion on lethal arms purchases and maintenance annually whereas Pakistan spends $6.5 billion on defence. Over 70 million Pakistanis suffer from malnutrition. Pakistan and India have collectively squandered $10 billion on the Siachen front.
Kamran Khan said that only 20 percent of the defence budget of Pakistan can open 7,000 new schools a year or can establish 1,300 hospitals whereas 20 percent of the defence budget of India can establish 45,000 schools or 8,000 hospitals there.
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