An operation — but at a cost...

The government has finally launched a military operation against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its cohorts. At this juncture, it is crucial that the nation resist too much euphoria over a measure which the state has inevitably been forced to take. Instead, all eyes must be focused on the fallout from this operation. Pakistan was being assaulted even as the government tried to negotiate with the Taliban. Imagine what may befall now that our forces are going after them. The generic ‘increasing security’ won’t cut it because it never really has done so in the past. With the enemy already among us and even enjoying support from certain parts of our society, what do we do? How do we handle the backlash? I thought it useful to breakdown the backlash into separate domains – political, economic and security. The political backlash is the least of our worries right now. Economic backlash is a major concern but it is closely tied with the security scenario. If we can manage security, we may manage the economic ramifications better. Security Backlash We are going to get hit and it will be harder than ever before. For the increasingly desperate TTP, everyone may be fair game. It cannot be stressed enough, then, that effective counter-terrorism measures exist at the provincial level. As I said in my previous article, for a country at war, our provincial security apparatus seems incredibly spineless in every case. It’s alright that “red alerts” are being issued for high-risk areas. But the Parliament House will qualify as high-risk even as mosques and churches and bazaars are left vulnerable to attacks. Fact is, terrorist hotbeds exist not just in North Waziristan but also inside cities like Karachi and Quetta. These will need to be secured in some way. With the right intelligence and coordination between law-enforcement bodies, local Rangers and Police can restrict the movement of dangerous elements and prevent attacks. Secondly, the government will have to seriously tighten up the prosecution of terrorists. Anti-terror legislation exists, but loopholes allow many criminals to break free. Our Anti-Terrorism Courts are notorious for their high acquittal rates for a long time. This shouldn’t be allowed anymore. A proper framework of laws which facilitates swift action and punishes anyone even remotely linked to terrorist activity is a must. Thirdly the government must issue public warnings to let citizens know the threat level they face. I particularly emphasise this because it appears our rulers issue alerts to each other all the time and still, scores of civilians end up getting slaughtered from the recklessness of one governmental body or another. So instead of expecting a coordinated effort from the government to protect citizens (like it happens in dignified countries), how about just letting the public know so they can save themselves? Economic Repercussions As Pakistan launches this operation, we are bound to take a huge economic hit, given the cost of undertaking this effort and the cost in terms of human lives. The stock market will falter every time the TTP strike back. As we are formally a warring country now, foreign investment will slow down until we are clearly considered to have an upper hand in this battle. We are essentially pushing the pause button on our economic plans while we deal with a bigger menace. If we are completely successful, the short term loss may be recovered but if we are not completely successful, it might be harder to grow than before. That means that the longer the operation, the worse it is for the economy. The pro-business agenda of PML-N will suffer, but it’s not like terrorism hadn’t battered foreign investment in Pakistan anyway. In these few sensitive months, what the government can do is get its developmental projects right and build the narrative we’ve so badly needed at the international level – that we’re not a failing state, we’ll always fight terrorism and as soon as we’re finished we’ll be back on our feet. Additionally, it would help if the government came forward with specifics of the cost we’re looking at as a result of this operation. This will give us a figure to recoup once the battle is over. Doing so would also provide a logical rebuttal to those within our country who choose to side with the terrorists as they feel fighting them comes with a heavy human and economic cost. Political Backlash Honestly, this should be the least of any political party’s worries right now. Fact is, there are people in our country who side with terrorists against their countrymen. Unfortunately we cannot get rid of them as we believe in the rule of law and freedom of speech unlike the terrorists. All we can do is to remember who these people are so we know they are traitors and then ignore their rants as those are nothing more than rants of traitors. We’ve been playing politics with terrorism for long enough at the expense of lives and dignity and what not. Now that we have a plan against it, let’s keep petty interests aside. This operation is going to test our mettle as a nation. We could either bungle around with it like we have done in the past and live with the curse of terrorism, or for once get the job done albeit the high costs. We’ll deal with traitors later.