Everyone had expected a period of political stability when the PML-N returned to rule the country for the third time, and with absolute majority, following the 2013 general election. What people see today, however, is that the monolith lives in fear of its opponents joining hands and bringing down its government through street power. On the face of it, the fear looks irrational as the PPP and other mainstream political parties have declared in unequivocal terms that they will not be part of any movement launched to derail the existing democratic dispensation.
It is true that Dr Tahirul Qadri, the self-proclaimed Shaikhul Islam and reformer, is back in Pakistan and making waves that the Chaudhries of Gujrat want to ride to revive the political fortune of their PML-Q, and Imran Khan’s PTI is building up pressure for recounting of votes cast in four constituencies in last year’s election and for the reconstitution of the Election Commission.
But does all that mean the prediction of lone fighter Sheikh Rashid of Rawalpindi that the rule of PML-N would end before next Eid-ul-Azha would come true? Highly unlikely.
Still, their collective demand for the resignation of Chief Minister Punjab over the killing of 12 workers of Dr Qadri’s Pakistan Awami Tehrik in Lahore on June 17, should worry the top PML-N leadership for it reflects the popular sentiment against ‘bloody politics’.
With 190 members on its roll call in the National Assembly, the PML-N faces no threat of an in-house change at the federal level, but people certainly look askance at police shooting political opponents in the streets. It is unfortunate that the PML-N leaders see in it a conspiracy against the ruling party and machinations in the opposition camps.
Ironically, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif himself spiced the speculation that the days of his government are numbered by saying on several occasions in recent days that “if my government is allowed to complete its five-year term this time, we will change the face of the country”.
Dr Qadri, who is considered to have queered the pitch for him, has a limited constituency. It hard core comprises the students of his Minhajul Quran chain of schools and colleges – and their parents and relatives. On their strength the religious scholar can hold an awe inspiring rally but not bring the revolution he wants the existing political-economic system sweep away.
Realistically, that objective would be unattainable even if Imran Khan joins hands with him in the teeth of the entrenched forces. In the prevailing situation, the most good that the two can try to do together for the downtrodden is to push for the electoral reforms that Imran Khan’s PTI wants.
Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi of PML-Q have probably lived their political shelf life. They see their chance of surviving in being part of an anti-government alliance and are working for it. Again, such an alliance would need Imran Khan for success as his Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf alone has the potential to bring people on the road.
As for Pakistan Awami League’s Sheikh Rashid, he can be a good cheerleader. But the team playing out there has to be worth cheering for. In fact, he owes his seat in the National Assembly to the PTI, which supported him in the 2013 general election.
So the PTI has to be the sheet anchor if there is to be an anti-government movement in near future. Though PTI leadership has repeatedly denied reports that it was eying mid-term elections, the nervous PML-N sees the party’s demand for thumb impression-based recounting of votes on four constituencies leading to that. That is why the PML-N government argues that election tribunals or the Election Commission of Pakistan have to decide the fate of four constituencies.
A PTI MNA close to the party chief says his party’s future course of action vis-à-vis the government depends upon the latter’s response to its demand for recounting of votes.
“I have personally spoken to my fellow PML-N lawmakers in the National Assembly to get this controversy resolved as soon as possible,” he confided to Dawn. “That would help bring down the political temperature in the country.”
However, the PML-N is haunted by the fear that PTI’s demand for recounting of disputed votes was designed to put a big question mark on the 2013 general elections and the party would sooner than later would demand early elections.
Published in Dawn, June 27th, 2014
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