Challenge ahead

The Aug 14 rally — and now threatened sit-in — by the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf is surely the biggest, most visible challenge to the government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif yet. What was once only whispered, and perhaps feared, has now become an open and insistent demand: the PML-N government must go, according to the PTI, because it is illegitimate and elected by fraud. Yet, just because an opposition party alleges illegitimacy and illegality and because it is aiming to overthrow a government, it does not mean the allegations are automatically true or that the aim will inevitably be realised. Much — perhaps most — will depend on the leadership, equanimity and resolve of one man: the prime minister himself. In truth, even at this stage, it is incredibly fuzzy just how the PTI can engineer the downfall of the PML-N government at the centre. Resignations from assemblies or dissolving the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assembly will not affect the mandate of the PML-N. The PTI does have a proven ability to turn out large crowds, but does it have a large enough of a hardcore base that will obey Mr Khan’s call to mass on the streets and stay there, come what may? And will a movement so clearly focused just on Punjab be able to branch out into the other provinces? If not, would a Punjab-only movement be enough to draw in other anti-democratic forces to cause the PML-N government’s downfall through unconstitutional means? So far the principal threat to Mr Sharif’s government is that street pressure by the PTI will force mistakes from the PML-N that may ultimately allow for anti-democratic forces waiting in the wings to step in and pull the plug on Mr Sharif’s third term. Yet, when it comes to the politics of derailment and long marches, there is no one more experienced than Mr Sharif himself. Having both launched attempts to overthrow governments and defended against attacks on his governments in the 1990s, the prime minister ought to know every trick in the book, and then some. Whatever playbook Mr Khan is now using against the PML-N, the prime minister ought not to be surprised by anything that is thrown at his government — and theoretically should be in a position to deflect it. Up till now, though, Mr Sharif has chosen to lead from behind — leaving it to his ministers and party members to defend his government, whether in parliament or on TV talk show sets or in press conferences. That surely will not be good enough in the days and weeks ahead. The prime minister must not only take charge of the situation but must be seen to be taking charge of the situation. Hanging back has allowed the challenge to his government to become real and the crisis to grow. Now is the time to lead from the front. Published in Dawn, August 7th, 2014